There are countless arguments about who would win. Ali vs. Tyson. Bruce Lee vs. Jackie Chan. Batman vs. Superman. The problem with these arguments, as intriguing as they may be, is that there will never be a sure way of finding out who would win. Enter BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre.
Not too often does a fight come along that puts two number one ranked fighters against each other at the prime of their respective careers. You have the number one lightweight in the world, BJ "the Prodigy" Penn, fresh off of three straight wins against very tough opponents, Jens Pulver (a second round rear naked choke), Joe Stevenson (another second round submission), and top ten ranked Sean Sherk (a third round technical knockout). Next you have the number one ranked welterweight in the world, Georges "Rush" St. Pierre, coming off of four straight wins. He put on a wrestling clinic against arguably the best wrestler in MMA, Josh Koscheck, he ultimately submitted Matt Hughes in a very lopsided beat down, avenged a previous loss to Matt Serra by a brutal TKO, and manhandled a very game Jon Fitch in a five round decision. Yeah, these guys are tough.
But what makes this fight so great? Why should casual fans drop $45 on a card that has neither a Liddell nor a Lesnar in the main event? The answer is history, folks. Now I know "history" is a term thrown around quite frequently these days when it comes to fights. Couture vs. Lesnar was tagged as the biggest fight ever by the UFC marketing committee. Fedor vs. Arlovski was just billed as the greatest heavyweight fight of all time. What makes this fight any different? Well, quite honestly, it comes down to mathematics. You will not find two more evenly matched fighters at this level of competition. BJ Penn is the better striker, but GSP is a great striker himself. St. Pierre is the better wrestler, but BJ has a style that's able to negate great wrestling.
What I, and most other critics out there, think this will come down to is how badly BJ Penn wants to win this fight. He's come into fights out of shape before and hasn't showed the greatest dedication in the past. If he didn't gas in his first fight against GSP, there's a good chance Penn would have won the title and still be champ today. Aside from a little hiccup by the name of Matt Serra, GSP has shown near perfect presence in the octagon, most recently showing he can go just as hard in the fifth round as he does in the first. Penn has never gone 5 rounds and still come out on top, as evidenced by his first two title fights against Jens Pulver and Caol Uno. However, since losing to GSP the first time, Penn seems to have a new lease on his time in the sport and has come out strong in every outing since, looking near unstoppable, even controlling and picking apart Sean Sherk for three rounds in their bout last May.
Personally, I see BJ winning this fight, but by no means will I be putting any money down on him. St. Pierre has a way of taking fighters out of their element and controlling them with vicious ground and pound at a relentless pace. If BJ can keep up with St. Pierre athletically, which I suspect he will, he should walk away with the victory.
THE UNDERCARD
Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
This fight could very well decide the next challenger for the Light-Heavyweight title. Dana White has said that if Machida wins, he will be the next man to fight for what is arguably the most prestigious MMA title in the world. A title previously held by such living legends as Frank Shamrock, Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell. Machida's more than earned his spot amongst the elite at 205lbs, and should win this fight with little to no problem against the reckless Thiago Silva. More than likely, Silva will have a hard time connecting any strikes on Machida and will end up being knocked out himself or losing in a decision.
Karo "the Heat" Parysian vs. Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim
Yet another entertaining fight in the very stacked welterweight division. Karo has been in the top ten for a while, but always seems to come up short against quality opponents. "Stun Gun" has looked very impressive with shockingly effective ground and pound, but won a controversial split decision against Matt Brown that many fight fans, present company included, believe he lost. Karo should win this fight by decision if he utilizes his incredible judo background.
Nate Diaz vs. Clay "the Carpenter" Guida
On any other fight card, this would be easily considered fight of the night on paper. Clay Guida is a very explosive and gifted wrestler that has the ability to take most guys in his weight class down at will. However, Nate Diaz has shown since joining the UFC that he is not a guy you want to put on his back. Nate's guard and submissions are nothing to be scoffed at, and while Guida has shown he can take a fighter down, he's never shown an incredible amount of competence once he gets there. I say a bloody Diaz by submission off his back in round 2.
Stephan "the American Psycho" Bonnar vs. Jon "Bones" Jones
It's nice to see Stephan Bonnar back on the main card of a UFC pay-per-view. After a year long suspension and a near year long injury hiatus, Stephan Bonnar is back in a fight that should produce fireworks. Jon Jones, with a perfect 7-0 record, all but one finished by the man himself, will be in store for a big step up in competition. At this stage in his career, Bonnar is too smart to stand around and bang with Jones in an attempt to recreate the original Griffin/Bonnar match, and will likely take Jones down early in the first round for some unfamiliar territory in ground and pound and top notch submissions. I got Bonnar by first round submission.
Written by Brandon Ruiz (branaruiz@gmail.com)
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